Pot Odds is about helping
you with the decisions you make playing texas
holdem game and even when to make the correct call based
on the expected return on your money. This is not to say
you will win all the time but your chances (money odds)
will improve and eventually you will catch a nice break
now and again. Every time you make a decision or react to
what another player does in Online Texas Holdem you are
taking and or laying odds. Yes sometimes you have a gut
feeling that this guy is bluffing and you go all in but
most of the time your decisions should be made on purely
mathematical odds or pot odds.
For example you have
7h8h (in the BB) and the flop comes down Ks Qd 7c with three
people in the hand. You check and the player following you
bets the pot and the other player calls. Now you are up
against it and you have got to assume that one of the two
players has either a K or a Q and that your pair of sevens
are no good. Basically you have 5 outs that might result
in your winning and that means that your 10% chance (approx)
of hitting your card on the turn for 4 – 1 money odds
is telling you to fold. Course when you fold the “7”
hits and if you call a blank hits. In this case you listen
to the math and fold since you are getting 4 to one odds
on your money and you have a 10 to one shot of hitting your
cards (and you are not sure if you get your card that you
will still win the hand).
Often in Online No
Limit Holdem you are faced with the following decision;
“Do they have it or not?” over and over again.
You will note that most of the time they have it. Since
at the level most people play bluffing is not a profitable
alternative.
All this to say that
knowing your pot odds is important if you plan on making
money in No Limit Texas Holdem. You must have an immediate
idea of the odds of making or defending your hand in any
given situation. Furthermore you need to be able to compare
the odds you are getting against the money odds you are
getting (or giving if you are betting).
In a No Limit Texas
Holdem Tournament you better know your pot odds inside
out because I can promise you that the best players (the
one’s that win over and over and over again) know
their pot odds so well that if you don’t know them
you are finished before you start. Most of the big winners
on any poker site (Texas Holdem Tournament players) never
want to risk there money on a coin flip early on. The players
that do go all in early are amateurs and you don’t
have to worry about them much. The good players prefer to
wait and grind out small pots from amateurs and play position
to their advantage (with or without good cards).
Like it or not there
are situations that the best players need to make the all
in move to survive in a tournament and when this happens
they are looking to be in a dominating position preflop
if they go all in. No they don’t always win their
all in’s but they usually have the best of it going
in and that is the key to being a good player in No Limit
Texas Holdem.
Here are some crazy stats
for Online Texas Holdem players. Hard to beliefe but there
are 1,326 possible two-card combinations for your starting
hand. If you play a hand to the flop you will see a total
of just under 20,000 possible flops (19,600 to be exact).
In fact there are a remarkable 2,118,760 total possible
combinations on the board. All this to say you need to play
a lot of online texas holdem tournaments to see the same
board twice. Forget the board for a second. How often do
you see the same hands go heads up preflop for all the marbles
– namely AK vs AQ or AK vs AA or AA vs KK or AK vs
KQ. All this means is that too many people are reading these
silly books and that they understand that if you are going
to put your tournament on the line it might as well be with
a solid hand preflop. You know that AK vs Q6 is only a 3/2
favorite or a 60/40 favorite. Online players go nuts when
they lose to Q6 when they have AK as they think they should
win that 95% of the time … but the mathematical truth
is that AK beats Q6 sixty percent of the time. Who in the
heck plays Q6 off suit anyway. Someone who knows that they
have a 40% chance of winning and they want to make a stand
right there.
Is it worthwhile to know
that your odds of getting a pocket pair are 16/1, and catching
a set or quads on the flop 12% (one in 7.4). The chances
of getting pocket aces dealt to you are 221/1. Who cares
if you have no pair you will make one on the flop 32.5%
of the time and by the river 49% of the time. Well all this
information works back into your game and you need to know
it to make rational decisions. Is it important to know that
if you are holding two suited cards that you will make a
flush 8.4% of the time by the river but catch your flush
on the flop only 1 in 118 flops.
Yes of course it is
important to know this as every little percentage here or
there helps you out in the game. In fact going back to your
two suited cards you should flop a flush draw 11% of the
time. In other words if you have a pair or two suited cards
you are likely to hit your set more often then your flush
draw. WOW! But low and behold if you get that flush draw
on the flop you will hit it 34.97% of the time. So how about
that if you are in a hand with two suited cards and the
flop shows two of your suits and someone goes all in and
two callers are there and it is your turn to decide what
to do? The math is telling you to call since you are getting
likely 4 to one on your money on a 35% event. You are here
to gamble so gamble already! So what if you get an open
ended straight draw and you only complete the straight 31.45%
of the time? Well if you are getting six to one money odds
you go! My buddy says: “I’ll Go!” –
so GO already!
No Limit Texas
Holdem Tournaments are about survival and knowing (or
suspecting) that you are in a dominant position with better
then 50 – 50 chances so you put your money on the
line. It is easy to go all in when you flop a full house
but is that the right thing to do? I have seen players do
it and everyone else folds … NICE PLAY! The other
element of Texas Hold’em is the psychology involved
in convincing your opponent that he has the best of it when
he is drawing dead and some how getting him to risk all
his chips at this point in time. You make more money getting
other people to play stupidly then you do when you bluff.
The basic strategy involved in fishing people to bet is
to get the nut out of position and to check to an aggressive
player who has position on you. That is the sweetest feeling
of all to see someone go all in when they have zero chance
of winning.
Often you will make a play on a pot just because you have
calculated the odds in your favor (ie an open ended straight
draw with a flush draw on the flop) even though you may
not be ahead in the hand when you make the move to bet aggressively.
This aggressive betting into a likely scenario is important
because you know in advance if your opponent re-raises you
all in you are going to call. It is very important to know
how you plan on playing before you make a move and how you
will react to your opponent if and when he makes a counter
move. If you bet at a pot with the intention of folding
if your opponent goes over the top of you for all your chips
then you have to know it before you make your bet. Not think
about it after your opponent has made the all in move. On
the other hand you have to know when you are pot committed
and when you are going to call a move back over the top
by your opponent.
Most of the time in No
Limit Texas Hold’em it comes down to a coin flip or
a race. Most players are used to having a pocket pair going
up against two overcards (ie QQ vs AK being the classic
battle). Sometimes you get a situation where you will get
AJ vs KQ - a virtual coin flip that you really want to avoid
if possible but you will notice that online poker players
will jump into a coin flip without any fear.
What you are really looking
for is a situation where you can put your money at risk
when you are a 4 – 1 favorite or better. For example
KK vs QQ or KK vs KQ even better. You are always trying
to get into a pot with a huge statistical advantage so as
to move along in the tournament. As I have stated already
the good players don’t want to move all in pre-flop
early in the tournament unless they have AA or KK while
the inexperienced players are pounding all in out of position
with TT or JJ or AQ regularly.
Something to watch when
you are taking notes on some of your competitors. Post flop
you are looking for top pair with an Ace kicker or top pair
with the nut flush draw or an open ended nut flush or nut
straight draw with the top pair. These situations are very
good to play from and usually you will do well if you catch
a few good flops in your tournament. Of course you always
have to be conscious of your opponents and know that if
they are calling you they must have something. The last
thing you want to do is to bet top pair into a player with
more chips (and in position) who then raises you all in
holding two pair or a set. That is usually what gets players
into trouble and busted out of tournaments.
You will note that the
good players usually are busted out by river draws against
them while the bad players are busted out when they call
an all in and are way behind in a hand. Play smart and make
sure you are the player who has the best of it when you
put your chips in play.
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